US Office Real Estate Sentiments Diverge After Strong Share Price Performance

office-real-estateA month ago, we examined the marked uplift in Bitvore Sentiment Scores for a number of listed entities exposed to US Office Real Estate. Earlier this year we had highlighted that Banks and investors were increasingly singling out US office commercial real estate as an area of concern, with property values falling and more borrowers defaulting on their loans following rising interest rates and a slowing economy.

The month of November was one full of good spirits for the broad equity markets. The momentum continues on hopes that central banks will become more accommodating with investors closely following economic data to guide their judgment on the future of monetary policy in the United States. November was a particularly strong month for the sample of securities we have been tracking with US REITs with office focused portfolios or exposure, with average gains in November of over +20%, ranging from +32.5% to +6.5%.

Up until the start of November, we had seen a marked uplift in the Bitvore Sentiment Scores for a number of these businesses. More recently, however, the Bitvore Sentiment Scores have started to fall for some of these securities.

We proposed last month that with Sentiment improving and further interest rate rises unlikely, the current valuations of listed entities exposed to US Office Real Estate may represent good relative value. With some Sentiment scores now falling, the sustainability of the recent impressive share performances will be interesting to watch as we move into 2024.

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